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In Houston, about 28% of the ICU beds are occupied with COVID-19 positive patients. So far around 200 people have died.

100% of regular capacity is full. Sounds like its a good thing that they are prepared with the extra capacity as the spread accelerates.
 

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Normal is 80-90% so it's not a big increase. And you mention they have addition capacity already built in.

To put this in perspective: (Something news channels can't or won't do):

By population, New York/New Jersey have had 20 times the number of deaths as Texas. A number that is not really changing.

In Houston (population of around 2.5 million), 152 have died from COVID-19.
 

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Look we all care for the businesses that are losing work right now.

I do think there are a lot of good preventive measures that are being taken and adaptation as well to make it work.

But there are some that just can't. Bars, conventions, and many others are just really tough to get right.

Unfortunately we didn't get it right at the beginning. We should have had less "essential businesses", and all wore masks. I think we really could have knocked this thing back in 3 weeks and performed better contact tracing like in South Korea. Now we are limping along and bleeding out.

We went out last night to an outdoor dining spot (and local business that needs the support) and spoke to the waitress about the customers, she said that because so many other counties around us closed bars and are in worse shape that people from all over are coming out here because more things are open. She said they "want a vacation from the pandemic" and don't wear masks or respect the health guidelines. The locals are doing their part, now we really need to watch out because the tourists often seem aloof or entitled or misinformed. My point in this story is that because the country didn't get on the same page at the same time to take it seriously we are worse off. Its like we are taking half the medicine dosage and expecting the same results, or half cleaning the wound, or half treating the infection. Lack of discipline is keeping things closed I'm afraid.
 

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But there is no science to support that theory.

The lock down was NEVER meant to stop infections, it was to spread them out over time to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.

The reality of the situation is that we have either;

a) Already been infected or;
b) If not, we will be infected in the coming weeks/months (vaccine excepted).

It's really that simple and the media/people need to accept and deal with it.

Unfortunately we didn't get it right at the beginning. We should have had less "essential businesses", and all wore masks. I think we really could have knocked this thing back in 3 weeks and performed better contact tracing like in South Korea. Now we are limping along and bleeding out.
 

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According to the CDC's latest "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenario" (estimate) of May 20, 2020:

The linked document has five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2% to 1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%.
By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%.

In other words very similar to an aggressive flu season. And thus meeting "societies expectations"?

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios

p.s. I too am wearing a mask.
If this washes over the whole country now (328 Million) and .4% of people die according to that statistic then that that means we would be looking at 1,312,000 deaths. Which year of aggressive flu seasons are we comparing this too?

It seems to me like if 20% of the general population get this, the mortality rate would still be double a bad flu year.
 

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If this washes over the whole country now (328 Million) and .4% of people die according to that statistic then that that means we would be looking at 1,312,000 deaths. Which year of aggressive flu seasons are we comparing this too?

It seems to me like if 20% of the general population get this, the mortality rate would still be double a bad flu year.
That's .4% of symptomatic people. Not that I trust ANY models anymore... We're dealing with an unknown, and as such, input data will be highly flawed.
 

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...
Unfortunately we didn't get it right at the beginning. We should have had less "essential businesses", and all wore masks. I think we really could have knocked this thing back in 3 weeks and performed better contact tracing like in South Korea. Now we are limping along and bleeding out.

We went out last night to an outdoor dining spot (and local business that needs the support) and spoke to the waitress about the customers, she said that because so many other counties around us closed bars and are in worse shape that people from all over are coming out here because more things are open. She said they "want a vacation from the pandemic" and don't wear masks or respect the health guidelines. The locals are doing their part, now we really need to watch out because the tourists often seem aloof or entitled or misinformed. My point in this story is that because the country didn't get on the same page at the same time to take it seriously we are worse off. Its like we are taking half the medicine dosage and expecting the same results, or half cleaning the wound, or half treating the infection. Lack of discipline is keeping things closed I'm afraid.
Wow, limping and bleeding with a little fear of outsiders, eh?

Even if we had been able to do the "perfect" countrywide lockdown (which is virtually impossible due to the inevitable xenophobic accusations/ramifications), with everyone simultaneously cooperating as you might envision, we would still be in a huge bind as far as being completely isolated from the rest of the world. Any and every outside interaction would bring the inevitable probability of new infection and deaths; you can't escape that.

This whole "flatten the curve" message has turned into a giant bait and switch. The message (and expectation) now seems to be that if we just keep doing it "right" (i.e. indefinitely), we should somehow see the elimination of future infection spread and deaths. It is not at all a surprise to see new infections as the country opens up, that was always inevitable, and our hospitals are well within their capacity to handle it. Again, I suggest doing some research on the collateral deaths attributable to ongoing Covid restrictions. They should certainly be weighed and considered before assuming ongoing restrictions are an automatic benefit.
 

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20% is way to low. At least 80% of the population will get this and probably more like 90%. (Unless an effective vaccine is produced)

The question of how many will die:

The CDC's record on predicting deaths/mortality rate has been consistently too high. It keeps going down and there is no reason to believe it won't continue to do so.

It's clear now that most people that contract the virus show no or little symptoms. (80+%)

Almost everyone that dies has another major medical issue and the strain from the virus is just enough extra load on their body to push them over the edge. In effect it's shortening their lives rather than killing them.

My guess is that the mortality rate will be similar to the regular flu when all said and done.

If this washes over the whole country now (328 Million) and .4% of people die according to that statistic then that that means we would be looking at 1,312,000 deaths. Which year of aggressive flu seasons are we comparing this too?

It seems to me like if 20% of the general population get this, the mortality rate would still be double a bad flu year.
 

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My guess is that the mortality rate will be similar to the regular flu when all said and done.
My guess is that it's 10X worse.

When this thing runs uninhibited by distancing measures you end up with freezer trucks full of bodies and mass graves. I can't think of a time I saw that with the flu.
 

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But there is no science to support that theory.

The lock down was NEVER meant to stop infections, it was to spread them out over time to prevent overwhelming the hospitals.

The reality of the situation is that we have either;

a) Already been infected or;
b) If not, we will be infected in the coming weeks/months (vaccine excepted).

It's really that simple and the media/people need to accept and deal with it.
But there is no science to support that theory.

It's really that simple and the media/people need to accept and deal with it.
You're right, it is really simple. Knuckleheads need to quit spreading it with no masks and no distancing. You don't need science to tell you that's what happened in recent events.
 

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Almost all of us will catch it and in the unlikely event we are susceptible to it, we will die. That's the bottom line.
Screw that nihilistic attitude. I'm gonna take the best practices I can to prevent spread in my community and buy more time for life saving treatments to develop and I encourage others to do the same.

Just cause its raining outside doesn't mean you need to get wet.
 

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Lock-downs/social distancing, etc., don't prevent the disease they only delay you getting it.
It certainly does prevent the disease. Keep the R value below 1 and eventually it ceases to spread, this is what happened with SARS and MERS, it was contained enough to eventually have no new hosts. Hence the social distancing and mask wearing with COVID. Or just simply look at basically every other first world nation right now and their infection rates compared to ours (or consider NY's now). Because they actually listen to experts. It's a literal embarrassment to me as an American that our spread rate is as bad as Brazil's and India's where Europe and the Far East have this thing contained.

Guys, it's mortality and lingering health effects will be worse than the flu. I will bet you my life savings on that. The flu doesn't leave scarring in the lungs visible on x rays even for those without notable symptoms. The mortality from the flu is almost exclusively from the secondary pneumonia that develops in severe cases or when people don't heed the warnings to rest up and recover. The mortality from COVID is a variety of vascular issues because they are finding it is not a respiratory infection but a vascular one. Influenza doesn't cause strokes, organ failures and cardiac arrest.

Almost all of us will catch it and in the unlikely event we are susceptible to it, we will die. That's the bottom line.
I'm 40 with 3 kids and have no desire to die yet nor live the remainder of my life with complications because my fellow Americans were too goddamn stubborn to just use some common sense and instead had to display their self-claimed toughness and patriotism by going to crowded bars without a mask.
 

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One must, first, keep living to reap those benefits, and , second, take steps to keep his potential customers living to patronize him.
I've been staying home. I've saved a lot of money that I normally would have spent. If I get sick and die, those businesses have lost a good customer. So, multiply me by the thousands more who are dying now. They will lose out anyway.
As in all thing, there needs to be balance. There is risk in everything. To say all their customers will die is a bit silly in my opinion. Like posted above, 2 tenths of 1 percent appears to be an accurate number, and most of those were very old and/or seriously ill already. I know it's sad, but it is what it is.
 

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Screw that nihilistic attitude. I'm gonna take the best practices I can to prevent spread in my community and buy more time for life saving treatments to develop and I encourage others to do the same.

Just cause its raining outside doesn't mean you need to get wet.
Yep, just do your best to buy time until a Vaccine is ready....Then, people will refuse that too!
 

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Guys, it's mortality and lingering health effects will be worse than the flu. I will bet you my life savings on that. The flu doesn't leave scarring in the lungs visible on x rays even for those without notable symptoms. The mortality from the flu is almost exclusively from the secondary pneumonia that develops in severe cases or when people don't heed the warnings to rest up and recover. The mortality from COVID is a variety of vascular issues because they are finding it is not a respiratory infection but a vascular one. Influenza doesn't cause strokes, organ failures and cardiac arrest.

I'm 40 with 3 kids and have no desire to die yet nor live the remainder of my life with complications because my fellow Americans were too goddamn stubborn to just use some common sense and instead had to display their self-claimed toughness and patriotism by going to crowded bars without a mask.
You said it brother!

I'm in my mid 30s with one kid and a pregnant wife. I feel exactly the same.

No one actively wants to be a burden on their families, but some don't seem to care.
 
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